基于综合改进BP算法的洪灾损失评估

Evaluation of Flood Disaster Loss Based on the Comprehensive Improvement of BP Algorithm

针对传统洪灾损失评估存在的问题,提出了基于综合改进BP算法的洪灾损失评估方法。首先,利用自适应学习率调整、附加冲量项和模拟退火算法对标准BP算法进行改进,并将它们相互融合;其次,将洪灾损失评估影响因素划分为洪灾致灾因子、防洪能力因子、社会经济因子和地形条件因子,并分别分析它们对洪灾损失评估的影响;然后,建立基于综合改进BP算法的洪灾损失评估模型;最后,应用此模型对鄱阳湖区某县进行了洪灾经济损失评估计算。结果表明,该方法计算结果与洪灾损失统计值相差不大,说明该评估模型具有一定的可靠性。

Aiming at the problems which exit in the traditional flood loss evaluation, this paper put forward a comprehensive improved BP algorithm to estimate flood loss. Firstly, improving the BP algorithm, including the use of adaptive learning rate adjustment, additional impulse items and simulated annealing algorithm to improve the standard of BP algorithm, and merging them together to complement their advantages and disadvanta- ges; Followed by the impact of flood disaster loss assessment factors was divided into four factors of flood hazards, flood control capacity, socio - economic and topographical conditions, and analyzed the impact on flood damage assessment; Based on this, established the comprehensive im- proved BP algorithm of flood disaster loss evaluation model ; Finally, applying this model to evaluate the flood disaster economic loss of some county in Poyang Lake area. The results show that the model results and the actual flood disaster loss values are not significant showing the evaluation mod- el having certain reliability.