基于不确定性扰动的大中型工程项目群柔性进度计划模型

Flexible scheduling model of large program based on uncertain disturbances

传统的项目进度计划是一个确定的时间计划,具有很大的刚性。大中型工程项目群进度因受诸多不确定性因素的影响而呈随机性。本文分析了大中型工程项目群进度计划实施过程中政府、人为和环境等不确定性因素,研究并构建能吸收不确定性扰动的工程项目群柔性进度计划模型。在此基础上,结合蒙特卡罗仿真技术,编制形成具有一定完工保证率的项目群柔性进度计划,从而有效地提高项目群进度计划的稳健性,减少因项目群进度计划频繁更迭而造成的管理困难或资源浪费。

A traditional project schedule plan is generally a defined time plan, namely a rigid plan. In fact, the actual progress of a large project is random under various uncertain factors. This study analyzed the uncertain factors from government, human, environments etc. that influence the process of a program, and developed a flexible scheduling model of the program which can absorb uncertain disturbances. This model adopts the Monte Carlo simulation technology to construct a schedule plan of certain completion guarantee rate. Thus the present study can effectively improve the robustness of a program schedule plan and reduce the difficulty in management and the waste of resources caused by frequent changes in the schedule plan during the process of program.