货币供给、信贷规模、外汇汇率与房价波动的联动机制研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Study of Linkage Effect among Money Supply, Credit scale, Foreign Exchange Rates and Fluctuation of House Price——Empirical Analysis based on VAR Model

投资性需求是推动我国房价非理性上扬的重要原因。高房价的背后无疑是大量国内外资金涌入我国的房地产市场进行资本逐利,而此股资金流动性强弱、规模大小是我国宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策的具体体现。文章基于VAR模型研究,发现我国货币供应规模、信贷规模以及外汇汇率与我国房价波动存在联动效应,通过方差分解方法分析货币供应、贷款规模以及外汇汇率对房价波动的贡献程度,可找到调节我国房价新的着力点。

High investment demand is an important reason to promote the irrational rise of house price. Undoubtedly, what behind the high price is a large number of domestic and foreign capital surging into China＆#39;s real estate market for profit. The liquidity and scale of the capital reflects China＆#39;s macroeconomic situation and policies. This research which based on VAR Model suggests that there is a linkage effect among money supply, credit scale, foreign exchange rates and house price fluctuation .The essay tries to find a new point to adjust the house price through the analyze of the contribution of money supply, loan scale and foreign exchange rates to house price fluctuation.