中国化肥施用强度变动的因素分解分析

A Decomposition Analysis of Fertilizer Use Intensity in China

基于中国2004—2011年间31个省市的面板数据,采用因素分解方法从农产品和区域两个层面对我国化肥施用强度变动进行了分解分析。研究结果显示:①2004—2011年间,我国化肥施用强度呈明显上升趋势,并且远远高于国际公认的目标范围值;②在农产品层面,化肥利用效率下降是我国化肥施用强度增加的主导因素,农产品结构调整虽然起到了减缓化肥施用强度增长的作用,但影响较为有限;③在区域层面,区域产业结构调整和化肥利用效率变动共同推动了化肥施用强度的增加,且化肥利用效率贡献率明显高于结构调整贡献率。可见,改善和推广节肥增效技术以提高化肥利用效率、加快农业生产结构的调整和优化是我国化肥施用强度降低的重要途径。

Based on statistical data of 31 provinces in China during 2004-2011, this paper analyzes the driving factors of fertilizer use intensity from the perspective of crop and region .The results show that：the fertilizer use intensity has grown rapidly over the study period and is much higher than the internation -al accepted critical level;at crop levels , the increase of fertilizer use intensity was mainly caused by the reduction of fertilizer use efficiency , while the structure change had a minor effect on lowering fertilizer use intensity;at regional levels , the structure change and fertilizer use efficiency jointly promote the rise rate of fertilizer use intensity and the contribution of fertilizer use efficiency was much higher than the contribution of structural change .Therefore , evolution and popularization of fertilizer-saving techniques , adjustment and optimization of agricultural production structure should serve as essential approaches to re -duce fertilizer use intensity .