农业劳动力流出最优点、农民荒与粮食安全

The Optimal Agricultural Labor Force Outflow,Farmer Shortage and Food Security

以二元经济理论和新古典经济学理论为依托,构建了农业劳动力流出对粮食产出影响的理论模型,提出了农业劳动力流出最优点的研究假设,并运用面板数据进行了实证检验。研究得出,中国东部和中部区域正处于二元经济结构转换中期,农业劳动力流出数量已经越过农业劳动力流出最优点,对粮食安全构成了直接威胁;而西部区域正处于二元经济结构转换初期,农业劳动力流出数量还未到达农业劳动力流出最优点,存在着过剩的农业劳动力。

The paper builds a theoretical model of the outflow of agricultural labor effecting grain output , using the dual economic theory and neoclassical economic theory as the basis;and proposes the hypothe-sis of the optimal agricultural labor force outflow;and then takes an empirical test by using the panel data econometric model .The study found that , the eastern and central regions of China are in the mid-term of dual economic structure to convert;and the number of agricultural labor outflow has crossed the optimal agricultural labor force outflow , which constitutes a direct threat on food security .While the western re-gion is in the preliminary stage of dual economic structure to convert;and the number of agricultural la-bor outflow has not yet reached the optimal agricultural labor force outflow and there exist surplus of agri -cultural labor .