灰色模型与回归模型在城镇基准地价评估中的比较

Compared with Regression Model,the Appliance of Gray Model in Benchmark Premium

准确评估商服用地基准地价,可以为日后基准地价更新、调整和地价动态监测工作提供依据。以河南省沁阳市为研究对象,以划分定级单元地价总分值为基础,建立商服用地纯收益预测的灰色模型和回归模型,并结合收益还原法进行实证分析。研究结果表明:灰色模型比回归模型更能够有效地降低政策、法规、经济环境的影响,能够比较真实地反映商服用地收益的实际情况和发展趋势。因此,灰色模型在商服用地基准地价评价中较为科学合理。

Accurate assessment of the commercial services land benchmark premium, can provide evidence for future updates, adjustment and dynamic monitoring of benchmark premium. It takes Qinyang City as the re- search object and based on divide land grading unit. After that it establish commercial services land net in- come forecast of gray model and regression model which empirical analysis combined with income approach. The results showed that： Gray model Compare with regression model, it can effectively reduce the impact of policies and regulations and the economic environment and truly reflect the commercial services land revenues and development trends. Therefore, the gray model in benchmark premium evaluation of commercial services land is more scientific and reasonable.