我国海洋风能产业化财政支撑政策研究——基于系统动力模型

FINANCIAL SUPPORTIVE POLICY ON CHINA'S MARINE WIND POWER INDUSTRY BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS THEORY

运用系统动力学理论和方法,分析海洋风能产业化过程中的主体及循环反馈结构,遵循"投入—转化—产出"反馈回路选取若干系统影响变量,通过分析各变量之间的因果关系最终构建我国海洋风能产业化系统动力模型。基于系统动力模型,研究并比较我国海洋风能产业化财政支撑政策的作用回路,得出结论:政府购买支撑政策作用于产出子系统,适用于海洋风能产业化发展的初期阶段;政府补贴支撑政策作用于转化和产出子系统,适用于产业化发展的初期和中期阶段;优惠税率支撑政策作用于转化子系统,适用于产业化发展的中期和后期阶段。

This paper applies system dynamics theory to analyze the majority and circuit feedback structure during oceanic wind power industrialization by selecting several system variables by abiding by ＂ input-transfer-output＂ feedback circuit. Their causality forms the system dynamics model of China＇s oceanic wind power industrialization that is adopted to compare the loop of financial supportive policy, with concluding that the supportive policy purchased by government on output subsystem adapts to the original stage, that compensated on transfer ＆ output subsystems adapts to the original and medium stages, that tax-promoted on transfer subsystem adapts to the medium and late stages.