摘要
通过构建脱钩理论的Tapio脱钩模型,研究新疆1990—2010年经济增长与CO_2排放的脱钩关系及程度,分析发展的时间演变趋势。借助IPAT模型及结构分解分析法(structure decomposition analysis,SDA),从碳排放总量及能源强度方面,对脱钩弹性影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1990—2010年,新疆经济增长与CO_2排放之间处于弱脱钩及扩张连接状态;各个脱钩状态下,影响CO_2排放的主要因素是规模效应;通过技术进步来促使CO_2排放强度下降是实现新疆经济增长与碳排放增长脱钩的重要手段,但不能将技术进步作为提高能源效率的唯一手段来实现节能。
This paper, through setting up Tapio abjunction model, studies the abjunction relation between economy and carbon dioxide emission in Xinjiang during 1990 -2010, analyzes its temporal evolution, by means of IPAT model and Structure Decomposition Analysis （SDA） , discusses its drives from gross carbon emission and energy strength. The result indicates a weak abjunetion and expansion connecting between economy and carbon dioxide emission. The major drive of carbon dioxide emission is scale effect. Technical innovation in decreasing carbon dioxide emission strength is a vital tool in abjunction between economy and carbon dioxide emission, but can not be regarded as the sole means in saving energy.
出处
《资源与产业》
2014年第2期76-82,共7页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家自然科学基金(41001384)
关键词
CO2排放
脱钩效应
驱动因素
新疆
carbon dioxide emission
abjunction effect
drive
Xinjiang
