风险视角下水利BOT项目政府补贴研究

A Study on the Government Subsidies of Water Conservancy BOT Project Under the Perspective of Risk

准公益性水利项目在BOT融资中面临着诸多不确定性,而政府补贴额度的合理性是吸引水利BOT项目投资者的关键要素.重点分析影响水利BOT项目政府补贴的风险因素,并运用CAPM和WACC模型对贴现率进行风险修正,在此基础上,采用蒙特卡洛模拟得到特定政府补贴率下净现值NPV和损失率的模拟值,构建水利BOT项目政府补贴回归模型,并利用SPSS进行分析确定政府补贴率.

With the characteristic of quasi-public welfare, the water conservancy project face many un-certainties during the BOT financing. The rationality of the government subsidy has become a key ele-ment to attract water BOT project investors. First, this paper analyzed the risk factors which affect water BOT projects government subsidies, and used CAPM and WACC model to revise the risk dis- count rate. Then, this paper got the analog value of the NPV and the loss rate under the specific gov-ernment subsidy rate by using Monte Carlo simulation. On the base of all above mentioned, this paper build regression model of the government subsidies in water conservancy BOT projects, and used SPSS to analysis and determine the rate of government subsidies.