中强地震时间预测研究

A Method for Time Forecast of Intermediate to Strong Earthquakes

本文假定中强震孕育时,相应于区域应力场的变化,地震活动出现相对均匀—不均匀—不均匀增强的过程,以此为物理基础,取区域地震的发震时间相关参数组成样本空间,寻求描述地震事件在时间轴上丛集性的变异系数的变化与相应中强地震发生时间的关系。近几年的实际应用效果表明该研究对中强地震时间预测有意义。

Assuming that while a strong earthquake is being prepared, the seismic activity will demonstratea process of uniform to relatively uniform to uneven increase, correspond- ing to the local stress field change, Based on this physical basis, we constitute samples space by using the parameters related to the occurring time of earthquakes to seek the vari- ation coefficient about the earthquake events cluster character on the time axis. By the practical application in recent years, it turned out that the study in occurring time forecast of earthquakes is significant.