海外油气勘探新项目技术评价优选方法与参数体系

An optimization method and a parameter system for the technology evaluation of new ventures in overseas hydrocarbon exploration

针对海外常规油气勘探新项目地质、经济和政治等3个方面的特点,综合考虑这3个层面的决策要素及相互关系,提出了海外油气勘探新项目技术评价优选方法,并形成了一套针对不同评价目标尺度、不同勘探程度、不同工程条件与不同地缘政治环境开展技术评价的关键因素与评价影响因子的参数体系。该方法是一种半定量技术评价优选方法,适合于不同地质构造尺度、不同勘探程度以及不同资料掌握程度的勘探项目类比优选评价。应用结果表明:在油气勘探新项目评价中,油气资源潜力评价为先决条件;在具备勘探潜力的前提下,开展勘探潜力、经济效益与政治环境综合分析,将投资效益与投资风险突显;勘探潜力分析要以区带评价为重点;发挥专家组经验,开展海外新项目的快速技术评估,以满足海外发展中机会把握与快速投资决策的需求。建议海外油气勘探新项目评价要重视有利区带的研究,区块的获取要尽可能连片,以追求有利区带的有效涵盖,从而获得高效勘探。

By comprehensively considering the deci- sion elements and their interaction of conventional new ventures in overseas hydrocarbon exploration in three levels, such as geology, economy and poli- tics, an optimizatJor method was developed for the technology evaluation of these new ventures, and a relative parameter system was formed, which in- volves the key elements and influence factors about the technology evaluation under different size of e- valuation target, different exploration maturity, different engineering condition and different geopo- litical environment. As an semi-quantitative tool, this method is suitable to the analogy optimization of exploration ventures with various size of geolog- ic structure, various exploration maturity and vari- ous available technique data. Its application results have shown that： （1） the evaluation of potential hydrocarbon resources should be one of the precon- ditions for the new venture evaluation; （2） when there occurs some exploration potential, the explo- ration potential, economic benifit and political en- vironment should be comprehensively analyzed, in order to stress both investment benefit and risk; （3） the exploration potential analysis should give prominence to the play evaluation; （4） applying the expert-team experiences and conducting the fast technical assessment for the new ventures can satisfy the requirements to seize investment opportunities and make investment decisions rapidly in overseas hydrocarbon exploration. Therefore, it is recom- mended that the favorable play study should be em- phasized on the technology evaluation of overseas new exploration ventures, and that the acquired blocks should be joined together by every means pos- sible, so as to seek an effective coverage of favorable play and finally realize efficient exploration.