2013年国内外食糖市场回顾与2014年展望

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2013 and Their Prospects in 2014

2013年中国生产食糖1 283.93万t,销售食糖1 197.56万t。2013年伊始,市场普遍预期食糖增产,为稳定国内糖价,保护糖农和糖厂利益,2012/13榨季政府共收储180万t国家储备糖,收储底价为6 100元/t,但临储政策对中国糖价的支撑作用并不明显,现货和期货价格均跌破5 000元/t。随着国内原糖加工产能不断扩张,较高的国内外食糖价差刺激了食糖进口量大幅攀升,2013年国内共进口食糖454.6万t,同比增21.3%,使得国内食糖市场供给明显过剩,现货糖价跌至国内食糖生产成本以下,国内糖厂普遍亏损。展望2014年,全球食糖市场预计将连续第3年处于供给过剩状态,未来国际糖价很难出现大幅反弹;国内糖价在很大程度上将取决于全球食糖产量状况,波动区间较往年应会整体下移,并面临更多压力。

In 2013, the total sugar production in China was 12.839 3 million tons, and the sales volume was 11.975 6 million tons. At the beginning of 2013, sugar production was expected to increase. To stabilize domestic sugar price and protect benifits of sugar farmers and enterprises, the goverment purchased 1.8 million tons sugar as state reserve sugar with bottom purchasing price of 6 100 yuan per ton in 2012/13 crushing season, but the effect of reserve policy on supporting sugar price was not obvious, both spot and futures prices fell below 5 000 yuan per ton. In the wake of increasingly expansion of domestic raw sugar processing capacity and wide spread between domestic and foreign prices, the import volume of sugar in China increased to 4.546 million tons significantly with a year-on-year growth of 21.3% in 2013, which led to excess supply, below-cost price and deficit of sugar refineries in domestic sugar market. Looking forward to 2014, global sugar market is expected to be oversupply for the third consecutive year and international sugar price is difficult to rebound sharply. Domestic sugar price will face more pressure in the future and largely depend on the global sugar production, and the price fluctuation range will move down compared with previous years.