鄯兰原油管道月最优生产能耗预测

Prediction on the monthly minimum energy consumption for Shanshan-Lanzhou Crude Oil Pipeline

原油管道月最优生产能耗预测可以帮助管理者制定节能指标和挖掘管道的节能潜力。针对鄯兰原油管道输送油品种类多、分输点多、输送工艺复杂的特点,给出了一套月最优生产能耗的预测方法。该方法主要包含月输油流量分配和开泵、开炉方案优化。针对月输油流量分配,提出了平均流量分配和历史比例分配两种方法。在开泵、开炉方案优化中,分别采用动态规划法优化开泵方案和逆向搜索法优化开炉方案。基于输油流量分配模型和开泵、开炉方案优化模型,编制了鄯兰原油管道月最优生产能耗预测软件。利用该软件分别预测了鄯兰原油管道2012年1月和5月的生产能耗。结果显示:鄯兰原油管道尚存在一定的节能潜力,通过对比优化方案和实际运行方案,指出了进一步节能降耗的方向。(图4,表5,参14)

Monthly minimum energy consumption of a crude oil pipeline can be predicted to help managers define targets and tap potential of the pipeline in view of energy efficiency. Taking the Shanshan-Lanzhou Crude Oil Pipeline as an example, which features diversified media, multiple offtake points and complex processes, this paper presents a prediction method for monthly minimum energy consumption. This method includes monthly flowrate distribution and program optimization of pump and heater running. For monthly flowrate distribution, two modes are indicated, namely by average flowrate and historical proportion. For pump and heater running optimization, a dynamic programming is used for pumping and a reverse search method for heating. Based on flowrate distribution model and pump and heater optimization model, a software was developed and applied to predict the energy consumption of the Shanshan-Lanzhou Crude Oil Pipeline in January and May, 2012. The results show that the pipeline may be more energy-effective. By means of comparing optimized programs with actual running programs, this paper points out the direction in energy saving of the pipeline. （4 Figures, 5 Tables, 14 References）