胜利油田联合站综合单耗的多元线性回归分析

Multiple linear regression analysis of comprehensive unit consumption in complex station of Shengli Oilfield

油田联合站综合单耗受其自身因素与站内工艺条件的共同作用,为实现不同站库能耗大小的可比性,消除因流程工艺等差别造成的影响,将联合站综合单耗视作灰箱模型进行研究。基于多元线性回归方法,结合油田联合站实际生产情况,对联合站综合单耗与其主要影响因素的数学关系进行了多元回归分析,建立了联合站单耗回归模型。以胜利油田36座联合站实际能耗数据为基础,利用该模型对联合站能耗情况进行分析,结果表明:综合单耗与联合站处理液量正向相关,与综合含水率、原油密度负向相关;相对于处理液量,综合含水率和原油密度对综合单耗的影响程度分别为88.4%和50.9%,即对综合单耗影响程度大小依次是处理液量、综合含水率、原油密度。同时,结合实测数据,分析由3个影响因素引起的联合站能耗增大的原因,提出在工艺条件允许的情况下,采用集中处理来液和实施常温分水技术代替加热分水的节能改造措施。(表7,参10)

Comprehensive unit consumption in a complex station is affected by physical factors of and process conditions in the station. To achieve comparability of different stations＇ energy consumption and eliminate the effects caused by processes, the comprehensive unit consumption is analyzed as a greybox model. A multiple linear regression analysis is made on the mathematical relationship between comprehensive unit consumption and key influencing factors of a complex station by considering its actual operations, and then a unit consumption regression model is built. Taking the 36 complex stations in Shengli Oilfield as an example, the model is used in analyzing actual energy consumptions. The results show that the comprehensive unit consumption correlates positively with amount of liquid treated in the complex station and negatively with total water cut and crude oil density. In contrast to volume of liquid treated, total water cut and crude density affect comprehensive unit consumption by 88.4% and 50.9% respectively, that is, they affect comprehensive unit consumption in a descending order of volume of liquid treated, total water cut and crude density. Meanwhile, with measured data, the reasons for higher energy consumption due to such three factors are analyzed. Accordingly, this paper presents that, if possible technically, centralized treatment of feeding liquid and water diversion under ambient temperature （instead of water diversion by heating） are combined to save energy. （7 Tables, 10 References）