政府支出对居民消费的动态影响分析——总量分析和结构比较

Analysis of the Dynamic Effect of Government Expenditure on Household Consumption——Total Analysis and Structure Comparison

使用时变参数模型分析政府支出对居民消费的动态影响。实证结果表明:从总量上看,政府支出对居民消费有促进作用,但力度有减弱趋势,整体趋势呈现"倒L型";从结构上看,经济建设支出始终抑制居民消费,社会文教支出对居民消费的作用由弱变强,并逐步变为主要推动作用,行政管理支出对居民消费从促进作用变为抑制作用。不同时间阶段这三类政府支出对全体居民及城镇居民和农村居民消费的动态影响有一定程度的差异。

Using the time-varying parameter model to analyze the impact of government expenditure on private consumption. From the total perspective, the government expenditure has the positive effect on consumer spending, but the effect become weaker than before, and the overall trend appears the inverted L shape. From a structural perspective, economic construction expenditure has always suppressed private consumption, the role of social expenditure on consumption becomes strong, and the role of administrative management expenditure on consumption becomes negative. There are some different effects of these three types government expenditure on all residents, urban residents and rural residents＇ consumption in different stages.