农村小额信贷与农村居民收入增长——基于STAR模型的实证研究

Rural Microfinance and Rural Income Growth——An Empirical Study Based on STAR Model

结合时间序列数据,运用非线性平滑转移回归模型研究了我国农村小额信贷对农村居民收入的影响效应。研究结果表明,农村小额信贷与农村居民收入之间存在显著的非线性关系,农村小额信贷对农村居民收入具有促进作用,但存在不同区置间的不同影响:当农村小额信贷增长率小于位置参数时,其对农村居民收入增长的正向促进作用相当有限;而当农村小额信贷增长率越过位置参数时其对农村居民收入的正向促进作用变得非常显著。因此,我国应采取相应措施提高小额信贷增长率以促进农村居民收入的显著增长。

Combining with the time series data, this article evaluate China＇ s rural microfinance ＇ s effects on rural residents＇ growth by using smooth transfer regression model. The result shows that there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between the rural microfinance and rural residents＇income. Rural microfinance has a positive effect on the income of rural residents. But the effect is different in different regime. When the rural microfinance growth rate is less than the position parameter C, the positive effect is very limited, while the growth rate is more than the position parameter C, the positive effect is becoming significaht. Therefore, our country should take some measures to enhance the rural microfinance growth rate in order to pro- mote the growth of rural residents＇ income.