中国人口政策长期存在的必要性及其改革预期

The Necessity of Keeping China's Population Policy in the Long-term and Its Refom Prospects

逻辑起点和路径选择是人口政策改革的两个基本问题,关于人口政策改革的争议主要围绕这两个问题而展开。如果逻辑起点是错误的,无论路径是否合理,都不利于人口政策改革的推进。老龄化、人口红利和性别比失衡不是人口政策改革的逻辑起点。现阶段和较长时期内人口规模大仍然是中国人口问题的主要矛盾,人口政策仍然有长期存在的必要性,但是这不等于否定人口政策改革的必要性。以放松生育控制为方向的人口政策改革不是解决宏观层面上的人口规模和结构问题,而是对国家与公民之间、城乡之间、代际之间利益关系的调整和重构。全面深化改革的顶层设计和人口问题的自身特性决定了人口政策改革宜采取从"单独二孩"到"普遍二孩"的渐进式路径。

The logical starting point and the choice of path are the two basic issues of population policy reform, and all the disputes over population policy reform take place around them. If the logical starting point is wrong, no matter whether the path is reasonable or not, the reform of population policy would not be efficient. Ageing, demographic dividend declining and sex ratio imbalance are not the logical starting point of population policy reform. In a long term, population size is still the main aspect of China＇s population problem. Therefore, a long-term population policy is still necessary. The aim of the population policy reform is not to solve the problem of population size and structure, but to rebuild the relation between stakeholders, including country and citizens, urban and rural residents, the young and the old. The top-level design of China＇s reform and the characteristics of population problem determine the path of the population policy reform, which should be a gradual process, namely from Dandu to two children.