银川市呼吸道传染病发病与气候因素的关系初步探讨

The relationship between respiratory tract infectious diseases and climatic factor in Yinchuan city

目的研究银川市气温、相对湿度、降水量、气压等气象因素对呼吸道传染病发生的影响。方法监测、收集2005-2011年银川市呼吸道传染病的发病情况,结合7年银川市气温、相对湿度、降水量、气压、降水量、风速、日照时数等14个气象因素变化,用Spearman等级相关分析和多元线性回归Stepwise法分析疾病发生与气象因素的关系。结果呼吸道传染病冬春季发病较多,以5月份总计发病最多为3708例,夏季无明显的发病高峰;Spearman相关分析结果表明呼吸道传染病的发病与平均气压、最高气压、最低气压、气压差、平均气温、最高气温、温差、平均水汽压、平均相对湿度、平均风速、日照时数等气象条件存在相关性;多元回归分析结果显示银川市呼吸道传染病主要由平均气温、水汽压、气温差、平均风速、气压差有线性回归关系,与平均气温和气压差正相关,与水汽压、气温差和平均风速呈负相关,平均气温和水汽压对其影响最大。结论银川市呼吸道传染病的发生与气象因素密切相关。

Objective To study the relationship between climatic factors and the outbreak of respiratory tract infectious disea- ses. Methods Data for respiratory tract infectious diseases between 2005 and 2011 in Yinehuan was collected and correlation with the climatic factors such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, barometric pressure, rain fall, wind speed and sunshine hours were analyzed statistically with Spearman rank correlation analysis and multiple linear regression Stepwise Method. Results The incidence rate of respiratory tract infectious diseases high in winter - spring season. Spearman correlation analysis showed that the incidence of re- spiratory diseases and the average pressure, maximum pressure, minimum pressure, pressure difference, the average temperature, maximum temperature, temperature, average vapor pressure, the average relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours and other weather - related conditions;Multiple stepwise regression showed that average air temperature, vapor pressure, temperature difference, the average wind speed, air pressure difference has a linear regression. Average temperature and vapor pressure had the greatest impact, and temperature and pressure difference was positively correlated, vapor pressure, temperature difference and wind speed was negatively correlated. Conclusion The climatic factors can affect the outbreak of respiratory tract infectious diseases.