我国食品价格对非食品价格的传导效应——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Conduction effect of food price on non-food price in China——Empirical study based on VAR model

近年来,我国食品通胀率持续上涨,而非食品通胀率也呈现出不断增长的趋势,由此引发了社会的广泛关注,本文实证研究了食品通胀对非食品通胀的传导效应。结果表明:1)非食品价格和食品价格之间存在相互影响的双向因果关系;2)食品价格的上涨会对非食品价格产生正向冲击,且这种冲击有一定的时滞性,非食品价格受到食品价格冲击的影响比较明显;3)平均来看,2007年1月—2012年12月,食品价格冲击对非食品价格的变动有明显解释力,但非食品价格的变动主要由其自身冲击造成。

In recent years,food inflation rate continued to rise in China,at the same time non- food inflation rate is also showing a growing trend, this caused widespread concern in socie- ty,we empirically studied the conduction effect of food inflation on non-food inflation. The results show that： （1）It exists two way relationship of mutual influence between non-food price and food price; （2）The increase in food price will have a positive impact on the non-food price, and the impact has time lag, food price shock has a noticeable influence on non-food price; （3）On average,during January 2007 and December 2012 ,the influence of food price has significant explanatory power on change of non-food price,but the change of non-food price is mainly caused by the impact of itself.