基于分形插值理论的水库泥沙淤积量模型构建

Development of Reservoir Sedimentation Model Based on Fractal Interpolation Theory

水库泥沙淤积量的科学预测对于水库的合理调度、综合效益的发挥有着重要的意义。为了准确预测水库泥沙淤积量,首先,基于分形理论,探讨了基于分形插值的、具有外推功能的预测模型构建方法;其次,通过实例验证了水库泥沙淤积量变化具有较好的分形特征;最后,利用分形插值预测模型对未来时间点水库泥沙淤积量进行了预测。实证分析表明:采用这种方法构建的水库泥沙淤积量模型具有较高的可靠性,且便于编程,因此是一种实用性较强的水库泥沙淤积量模型建构方法。

Scientific prediction of reservoir sedimentation volume is of great significance for the reasonable regulation and devel-opment of comprehensive benefit of the reservoir .In order to accurately predict the amount of sediment deposition in the reser-voir ,firstly this paper discussed the method of prediction model construction with extrapolation function based on the theory of fractal interpolation ;secondly ,the variation of reservoir sedimentation volume was verified with good fractal characteristics ;fi-nally ,the amount of sediment deposition in the reservoir in future was predicted using the fractal interpolation model .The em-pirical results showed that the model constructed in this paper has the advantages of high reliability and convenient program-ming ;therefore it is an effective model construction method for reservoir sedimentation .