基于改进SIR模型的甲型H1N1流感防控研究

H1N1 Influenza Prevention and Control Based on the Improved SIR Model

在一般SIR模型基础上,改进SIR模型结合了甲型H1N1流感的传染特点,考虑了更多的因素,对人群分类更准确,从而增加了不同人群间的转化过程;在所建立的微分方程中,把每日潜伏者转化为病毒携带者的比例、易感染者的接种疫苗比例、甲型H1N1流感患者在发病前一天就具有传染性等因素都加以考虑;利用四阶五级Runge-kutta方法对模型进行求解。结果表明,改进的SIR模型对甲型H1N1流感的防控研究较为合理。

Compared to the basis of SIR model, many factors with modified SIR model are considered which combined with the H1N1 influenza epidemic characteristics： the crowd classification is more accurate, the lurker and the vaccinated persons are considered, which increases the conversion process among the different groups of people ; in differential equation, the factors with the proportion of daily lurk into virus carriers, the proportion of susceptible persons vaccinated, and the H1N1 influenza patients before the onset of a day which is contagious are considered ; the model is solved by the four order five stage Runge-kutta method. The results and figures are pres- ented, which show that the improved the SIR model of the H1N1 influenza prevention is more reasonable.