CAFTA对浙江的贸易效应——基于引力模型的实证分析

Trade Effect of CAFTA on Zhejiang——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

在对贸易效应理论回顾的基础上,分析了浙江与东盟贸易发展现状,运用贸易结合度指标,通过引力模型,引入虚拟变量,实证分析中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建成对浙江外贸发展的影响:浙江与东盟的贸易互补性特征明显,贸易结合度较高,经济规模与贸易引力呈显著正相关,新老成员国贸易效应差异较大。结合浙江与东盟贸易发展的实际,应实施差异化贸易战略、发展产业内贸易等。

Based on the review of the trade effect theory, this paper analyzes the status quo of the trade development of Zhejiang and ASEAN. By using the trade combination degree index and the gravity model, and introducing virtual variables,it makes an empirical analysis of the effect of CAFTA on Zhejiangs foreign trade development. Overall, the complementary characteristic between Zhejiang and ASEAN is obvious, the degree of trade combination is high, the economy scale has significant positive correlation with the trade gravity, and the trade effect is greatly different between new members and old members. In accordance with the actual situation of the trade development of Zhejiang and ASEAN, the paper puts forward that it is crucial to implement differentiated business strategy and develop intra--industry trade.