2014年中国物价走势分析与判断

China's Price Trend Analysis and Estimation for 2014

从CPI运行趋势看,2013年CPI已经进入上行周期,根据历史经验判断,中国CPI的上行周期一般持续两年左右,且周期的高点会在第二年出现,因此,预计2014年物价上涨压力比2013年略大一些,CPI走势将呈前低中高后低的倒"U"型演变。中国将在2014年逐步推进大宗商品价格市场化改革,CPI通胀率可能在今年下半年上行。即便如此,由于我国政府对物价调控一向高度重视,积累了丰富经验,加之经济增速不会出现偏快局面,货币政策将保持稳健,因此,2014年整体通胀压力将处于可控范围,CPI涨幅将在3%~5%这一温和上涨区间的下限上方运行,并可能在二季度达到最高点。物价上涨是跟老百姓生活相关度最高的一项经济现象,尽管涨幅仍将处于可控区间,但低收入群体对于物价上涨仍然非常敏感。

Looking at the CPI running trend, we can see the CPI has entered the uplink cycle since 2013. According to the historical experience, China＇s CPI uplink cycle generally lasts for about two years, and the top of which will appear in the second year. Therefore it is expected that in 2014 price pressure may be slightly higher than that in 2013, which will start low, in the middle of the year high, and end low, just like the inverted ＂U＂. Because China will gradually promote the market reform of commodity prices in 2014, the CPI inflation rate may be up in the second half of 2014. Even so, monetary policy will remain stable, as the government has always attached great importance to control on prices and has accumulated rich experience. Besides, the economy won＇t grow too fast. So the overall inflation pressure in 2014 will be under control, with China^s CPI growth in 2014 estimated to be 3 % to 50/6, which will run above the lower limit of this modest positive interval and will reach the highest point in the second quarter. Price rise is an economic phenomenon most relevant to people＇s ordinary life. Although the gains will remain controllable, prices are still very sensitive to low-income groups.