模糊状态风险分析的广义Logistic回归理论与应用(6)一由时间窗口资料估计疾病潜伏期分布(上)

The Theroy and Applications of Generalized Logistic Regression for Risk Analysis of Fuzzy States(6)

目的与方法 本文对按时间窗口取样的暴露资科 ,采用前向分析和后向综合策略 ,借助超额暴露分数 ,在完成多因素风险分析的同时 ,实现疾病潜伏期分布估计。结果 将潜伏期分解为有效暴露累积期和病前状态逗留期 ,有助于制定病因学和发病学预防策略 。

In this papper,a general approach estimation latency distribution of chronic diseases using data collected by the time-windows form a case-control study,is proposed based on the theory for risk analysis of fuzzy states.Making use of a forward analysis and backward synthesis strategy and excess exposure fraction,thisapproach can simultaneously accomplish multivariate logistic regression analysis and estimation of latency distribution.The latent period is resoved into the accumulative period of effective exposures and the sojourn period of predisease states.It gives a theoretical guide and interpretation to primary and secondary prevention of chronic diseases.