房地产与粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Real Estate Price's and Food Price's Effects on Inflation——Based on the Empirical Research of VAR Model

为了分析研究我国房地产价格和粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响,选取2000年第1季度至2010年第4季度数据,基于VAR模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,房地产价格、粮食价格和通货膨胀之间具有长期稳定的协整关系,且房地产价格和粮食价格的上涨对通货膨胀的发生均具有推动作用。但是,相比较而言,房地产价格的上涨对通货膨胀的贡献更大;粮食价格的上涨对通货膨胀的影响持续时间更长。

In order to analyze and study our country’s real estate price’s and food price’s effects on inflation ,the article chooses relevant statistics recorded from the first Quarter in 2000 to the fourth Quarter in 2010 ,and carries out the empirical test on the basis of the VAR model .As the result shows ,inflation has a long-term and stable co-integration relationship with both the real estate price and the food price ,besides ,the increase of which are contributive to the occurrence of inflation .By comparison ,however ,the rise of the real estate price contributes more to the inflation ,while the influence on inflation caused by the food price increasing last even longer .