孩次结构与中国出生性别比失衡关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Parity Structure and Imbalance of Sex Ratio at Birth in China

中国出生性别比的升高与生育水平的下降存在着时间上的紧密关联。生育水平下降所导致的孩次结构变化与出生性别比失衡的关系,是本研究关注的主要问题。研究发现,第二孩尤其是多孩生育的减少对我国出生性别比的失衡起到了明显抑制作用,且作用幅度从1981年至1999年逐年加强,2000年至2010年又有所减弱。2000年以前,中国出生性别比的失衡主要由二孩及多孩出生性别比水平的大幅升高所导致,2000年以后第一孩出生性别比水平升高的影响也日益显著。

In China, the increase of the sex ratio at birth （SRB） associates with the decline of the fertility level. The change of the parity structure, one of the main reasons of the low fertility level, may also play an important part in the change of the SRB. We find that the decrease of the proportion of the second and high- er parity deters the imbalance of the SRB in China. The increase of the SRB in China is mainly caused by the increase of the second and higher parity＇ s correspondent level of SRB before 2000, and the first parity＇ s SRB also Plays more and more important role after 2000.