农民工城市融合路径及影响因素研究——基于三阶段Ordinal Logit模型的实证

On the Path and Influencing Factors of Migrant Workers' Urban Integration:Based on Three-stage Ordinal Logit Model

本文依据浙江省农民工城市融合的调查数据,构建三阶段Ordinal Logit模型实证分析了农民工城市融合路径及影响因素。结果表明,农民工城市融合经历经济生存融合、社会交往融合和心理认同三阶段发展路径,经济生存融合由强到弱受职业资格、就业公平、婚姻状况、初始社会资本和居住条件的影响;社会交往融合由强到弱受居住格局、经济生存融合、经济生存状态的未来期许和上网时间的影响;心理认同由强到弱受社会交往融合、长期居留意愿和乡土记忆的影响。整合分析表明,经济生存融合极大制约了农民工城市融合的纵向提升,当前农民工城市融合仍停留在经济生存融合阶段。促进农民工城市融合的政策建议应着重考虑以上因素。

This paper constructs a three-stage Ordinal Logit model to analyze the path and influencing factors of migrant workers' urban integration with the survey data of Zhejiang Province. The results show that the urban integration of migrant workers experiences economic survival integration,social communication integration and psychological identity. Economic survival integration is influenced by occupation qualifications,employment equity,marital status,initial social capital and living conditions. Social communication integration is affected by living pattern,economic survival integration,the future expectations of economic survival state and the time for internet surfing. Psychological identity is affected by social communication integration,longterm residence willingness and local memory. The integrated analysis indicates that,economic survival integration greatly restricts the vertical elevation of migrant workers' urban integration,which still remains in the stage of economic survival integration. The policy makers should consider the above factors to promote the urban integration of migrant workers.