基于脱钩情景的中国建设用地总量管控目标分析

Analysis on Control Objective of Construction Land in China Based on Decoupling Scene

研究采用脱钩理论和弹性脱钩评价标准,对2001—2009年我国建设用地与经济增长的关系进行了分析,并据此设置相应的情景对2020年我国建设用地总量进行了预测,进而对本轮土地利用总体规划确定的2020年建设用地总量管控目标的可行性进行了分析。研究结果表明:①2001—2009年,我国建设用地与经济增长一直处于弱脱钩的状态,脱钩系数在波动中逐渐下降并趋于稳定,说明经济增长方式转变、结构调整和现行建设用地管控起到了积极的作用;②本轮土地利用总体规划确定的2020年建设用地总量管控目标基本可行,当脱钩系数控制在中等水平、经济平稳增长(年均7%)或脱钩系数控制在低水平、经济快速增长(年均10%)的情况下,本轮规划确定的2020年建设用地总量控制目标是可以实现的。因此,应该通过合理制定经济增长的长期目标,以先进制造业和现代服务业为突破口调整经济结构、降低经济发展的建设用地资源消耗,创新建设用地管理方式、改善建设用地管控效果等措施促进经济增长和建设用地进一步脱钩。

Abstract：Drawing on Decoupling Theory and Elastic Decoupling Methods,this paper analyzed the relationshipbetween construction land expansion and economic growth from 2001 to 2009 in China,and forecasted the scale ofconstruction land in 2020 through scene analysis in order to evaluate the feasibility of construction land＇s controlobjective in 2020 designed by the National Land Use Planning. The results showed that： （1）the relationship be-tween construction land expansion and economic growth was in a state of weak decoupling from 2001 to 2009,af-fected by transformation of economic growth pattern,the readjustment of economic structure and the strict regula-tion for construction land;（2）the control objective of construction land was feasible as long as decoupling indexcould be controlled in middle level,while economic growth remained middle speed（less than 7% per year）before2020 or as long as decoupling index could be controlled in low level,while economic growth remained rapid speed（more than 10% per year）before 2020. Consequently,in order to reduce decoupling index continually,this paperput forward some suggestions including establishing reasonable long-term goal of economic growth,adjusting eco-nomic structure and reducing the consumption of construction land resources for economic development with ad-vanced manufacturing and modern service industry as the breakthrough point,innovating construction land man-agement and improving control effect.