环境规制与中国宏观经济——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的实证分析

Environmental Regulation and Macro-economy in China ——Empirical Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文构建了一个环境规制影响宏观经济的内在逻辑框架,在此基础上将环境规制冲击引入动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨环境规制对中国宏观经济的动态影响。实证结果表明:建立在"波特假说"基础上的模拟经济能够较好地模拟实际经济特征,环境规制对产出、消费、投资和资本存量具有长期正向效应,对就业、物价、生产成本和工资收入具有长期负向效应,且在对各宏观变量变化的贡献中,环境规制发挥了主要作用。技术进步、政府支出和劳动供给对宏观经济的冲击与已有研究较为一致,但与环境规制相比,三种冲击对宏观经济的影响仅为中短期效应。

The paper set up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including environmental regulationwhich used data simulation method to study the dynamic impact of environmental regulation influence on macro-e-conomy in China based on an inherent logic frame of environmental regulation affecting macro-economy. Empiri-cal findings show that ： the simulation economy based on Porter＇s hypothesis can batter simulate real economy,environmental regulation has positive shock for output, consumption, investment and capital stock in the longterm, and has negative shock for employment, price, output cost and wage in the long term, environmental regu-lation play an important action of contribution for macro variables. The impact of technical progress, governmentexpenditures and labor supply is the same with existent research, but three shocks have mid-term and short-termimpact.