海上危化品运输系统安全管理博弈模型

A Study on Game Theoretical Model for Safety Management of Maritime Dangerous Chemical Transportation System

海上危化品运输系统是一个典型的复杂社会系统。为提升运输安全,促进科学、有效的管理水平,首先分析该系统的特点以及博弈论在该领域应用的可行性,针对运输管理活动中的不安全行为建立系统安全博弈管理模型,定义岸基博弈、船基博弈、船岸间博弈等博弈关系,最后基于事故案例验证安全博弈管理模型,实现海上危化品运输系统的和谐管理。基于博弈论模型开展管理研究对保障海上危化品运输安全具有重要意义。

Maritime dangerous chemical transportation system is a typical complex social system. In order to improve the safety of transportation, promote scientific and effective management, the characteristics of dangerous chemical transportation system, as well as the applications of game theory in relevant fields are analyzed. Aiming at handling unsafe behaviors in transportation managing process, the game theoretical model for safety management of maritime dangerous chemical transportation system is built. Game Ashore, Game （）nboard and Game between Ships and Shore are defined. Finally, the game theoretical model is applied in a chemical accident at sea lo verify its practicali- ty. The result implies that the model is valid and harmonious management can be achieved. Study on the safely management of maritime dangerous chemical transportation system based on game theoretical model is of great value.