内河搜救风险评估模型

Risk Evaluation Model for Inland Water SAR

为提高内河船舶交通事故的应急处理与搜救能力,以理论研究与专家调查相结合的方法构建内河搜救风险评估模型。首先,借鉴水上交通事故和搜救的历史经验,确定风险评估层次结构,将内河搜救风险因素划分为4个大项和15个小项;其次,采用专家调查法确定各个风险因素的阈值,设计风险指数计算方法和各级风险的模糊隶属度函数,并利用层次分析法对各个层次的风险因素的权重进行计算;最后,采用二级模糊综合评判模型对内河搜救风险进行评估。构建的风险评估模型能够对内河搜救风险进行有效评估,对于海上的搜救风险评估也具有一定的借鉴意义。

To improve the ability of emergency handling for traffic accident and search and rescue （SAR） in inland waters, a model for evaluating inland search and rescue of ships is established through combining the theoretical analysis and expert survey. Based on the historical experiences of inland traffic accidents and the SAR strategy, a hi erarchical structure of SAR risk evaluation is designed, which incorporates risk factors in 4 categories and 15 items. The threshold value of each risk factor is determined by the expert survey; the risk indexes are defined and the fuzzy membership function for each risk level is designed. The weights of risk factors in each risk level are calculated by analytic hierarchy process. The SAR risk in inland waters is evaluated using two-level hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The proposed risk evaluation model is not only effective for inland waters but also usable for SAR at sea.