辽宁水产品出口贸易发展轨迹、函数模拟及政策耦合

Aquatic products export trade,functional simulation,policy coupling in Liaoning province

改革开放以来,辽宁水产品出口贸易历经启动发展、开拓市场、开放经营和强劲发展阶段,已进入水产品贸易大省行列。基于出口函数的实证分析表明,水产品产量对其水产品出口金额的影响最为显著,人民币对美元年平均汇价和世界(中国除外)人均GDP的影响也很明显,而水产品生产价格的影响程度比较小且在统计检验上不显著。进而,从审视外部冲击、构建产业链、转变增长方式、占据汇率战主动权、发挥优势和投入资本方面提出了保障水产品出口贸易持续、稳定发展的政策建议。

Since the reform and openness, aquatic products export trade in Liaoning province has experienced the start, market expending, open business and vigorous development, and has evolved into the rank of aquatic products big province. Based on the empirical analysis of export function, aquatic product output is the most influential factor to the amount of export of aquatic products. Average exchange rate of RMB against US dollars and the world GDP （except China） also have a significant influence. However, aquatic products price has a small influence and not significant in statistical test. Therefore, the essay aims to provide recommendations on stability and continuous development of aquatic products export trade from external shocks, industrial chain, the transformation of the mode of growth, Currency war initiative, advantage and invested capital aspects.