气候因子对壳菜果种群的影响及未来分布预测

Effect of climate factors on Mytilaria laosensis population and distribution forecasting in the future

为了解气候变化对亚热带地区森林植被的影响,以及森林植被对气候变化的响应,本研究利用ISSR分子标记技术,对种源地和栽培地的壳菜果种群进行遗传多样性研究,并对栽培地气象因子进行分析。通过PopGen32软件包分析表明,栽培地种群(湖南新宁种群和湖南株洲种群)和种源地种群(广西凭祥种群)之间的遗传多样性无明显变化,这与湖南株洲引种壳菜果种群发生在气候变暖时期,各气候因子已不再是壳菜果种群生长的限制因子有很大关系。通过RegCM3气候模型对2042年气候进行模拟,年平均温度比2010年升高了1℃,1月平均温度升温明显,7月平均温度在南岭以南变化不大,以北地区升温明显,年降水量变化不明显;至2042年壳菜果天然种群可能分布至25°N左右,25°N以北有零星分布,但数量很少,沿海地区进一步向北延伸,达到26°N左右。

In order to investigate the influence induced by climate change on the forest vegetation in the subtropical area and the response of the forest vegetation to climate change, the genetic di- versities of Mytilaria laosensis population in provenance and cultivation areas were studied by ISSR molecular marker technique. The meteorological factors in the cultivation areas were associ- atively analyzed. The results analyzed by PopGen32 software package showed that the genetic di- versities of the cultivation populations （Xinning population and Zhuzhou population, Hunan） and provenance population （ Pingxiang population, Guangxi） of M. laosensis are basically consistent due to the time for M. laosensis population introduction in Zhuzhou, Hunan during the warming period when various climate factors were no longer limiting factors to affect the growth of M. lao- sensis population. The climate in 2042 was simulated by the RegCM3 climate model. Compared to the climate in 2010, annual average temperature would increase by 1 ℃, average temperature in January would obviously rise, while average temperature in July would have little change in the south of the Nanling Mountain but obviously increase in the north, and annual precipitation would have no obvious variation. It is expected that the natural population of M. laosensis may distribute to approximately 25°N in 2042, and distribute sporadically in the north of 25°N, while in coastal areas, the distribution would further northerly extend up to about 26°N.