煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型及应用

Development and application of the GRAANP-FCE model for disaster situation assessment of the gas explosion in coal mining

在系统分析煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害影响因素的基础上,针对影响因素的复杂性及其之间存在相互作用的特点,提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型。该模型采用灰色关联分析方法计算影响因素的灰色关联度并进行排序,以获得煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的主控因素,构建了由主控因素组成的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估指标体系,采用网络分析法建立了多准则、多层次的评估指标体系网络模型并计算了各评估指标权重,结合评估指标的权重分布,采用多级模糊综合评判法对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的态势进行了评估。通过实例验证了该方法的合理性。

The present paper aims to introduce our study and application of the GRA-ANP-FCE Model for disaster situation assessment of the gas explosion in coal mining based on the three theories including gray relational analysis, analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. According to the complexity of the influential factors of gas explosion in coal mining and the characteristics of interaction between them, first of all, we have analyzed the influential factors of gas explosion from four factors of ＂man-machine-environment-management＂, and worked out the gray relational degrees of the above said influential factors by using the gray relational analysis for the relational degrees between them and the assessment goal system. Next, we have built up the disaster situation assessment index system for gas explosion in the coal mine. The assessment index system is composed of the main influencing factors and includes 4 first grade indicators and 18 second grade indicators. And, then, we have established the multi-standard and multi-level network calculation model for the index system by using the analytic network process to embody the interaction and feedback characteristics between the influential factors. And, afterwards, we have figured up the weight sets by setting up the super matrixes and calculating the limited super matrixes in the long-term table. And, still next, a comprehensive commentary set has been put up in five disaster situation grades, with the judgment matrix with rating scales with a scoring indicators given by the experts to be invited. And, finally, joining the weights of the assessment indexes and the judgment matrixes together, it will help to predict and forecast the likely disaster situation levels of the gas explosion of coal mine by using the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system. The results of the trial application of the model proves to be consistent with facts proved by using the rationality of the method. Thus, the GRA-ANP-FCE Model for disaster situation assessment of the gas explosion in coal mining developed by us can surely provide an important reference to the coal mine gas accident control and management.