基于集对分析的非煤矿山紧急避险能力评价

An improved evaluation model for non-coal mine emergency rescue capability based on the set pair analysis theory

为了更好地对非煤矿山紧急避险系统的避险能力进行综合评价,结合层次分析法(AHP)和集对分析(SPA)理论,建立了一种新的非煤矿山紧急避险能力评价模型。以某非煤矿山紧急避险系统为实例,从环境、物料、管理、设备设施4个方面构建了紧急避险能力综合评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,计算得出系统的联系度表达式,分析了该模型的集对势及不确定性,对其进行了同一、差异和对立的集对分析。结果表明,该矿山紧急避险能力的级别为"良好"。该模型全面考虑了系统的确定和不确定性,从而使评价实现了定性与定量的结合。

The paper is aimed to introduce a new model for evaluating the non-coal mine emergency rescue capability via the theories of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and the set pair analysis （SPA）. Based on the case study of a non-coal emergency rescue system and the emergency rescue capability, we have worked out a comprehensive evaluation index system which include four aspects, that is, the environment, the material, the management and the maintenance of equipment and facilities. In accordance with the actual situation of such non-coal mine enterprises, we have chosen 19 indexes from the above mentioned four aspects as the chief evaluation indicators, including the refrigeration and dehumidification facilities, the explosion-preventive and protection sealing reliability, the drainage capability, the ventilation capacity, and the power supply capacity, （in addition to the first aid toolkit facilities, the fire extinguisher installation, food and drinking water supply and substitutes, the security exits, the employee self-rescuing facilities, etc）. The weights of the above said indexes can also be determined via the analytic hierarchy process. With all the above said indexes considered, we have worked out the denoting formula of the connection degree, which is used to facilitate the analysis of the set pair potential and uncertainty. What is more, the said system has been ranked through the identity, difference and antagonism of the set pair analysis. Moreover, we have also divided the emergency rescue capability into three grades： good, rather good, and poor. And, finally, the level of emergency rescue capability of the mine can be evaluated as ＂good,＂ if all the indicators of the above mentioned system were found to come up to the grade as is required. According to the contrary identical discrepancy vector matrix obtained from our research, we have also gained the influential factors, which tend to affect the rescue power likely more seriously, such as the refrigeration and dehumidification, the ventilation capacity and the routine maintenance condition. In view of the above mentioned situation, it would be possible for us to take available measures to improve the rescue capability of the mine, such as reforming the ventilation system, strengthening the local ventilation condition, or invite necessary experts to do regular inspection and maintenance of the system equipment. Taking into full account the certainty and uncertainty in the paper, the model we have developed is able to make an evaluation by integrating qualitative and quantitative analysis means into a comprehensive one. Thus, the suggested model is qualified to provide a reference to evaluating the non-coal mine emergency rescue capability and safety management.