西北五省产业结构与碳排放量的关联分析

Correlation Analysis between Industrial Structure and Carbon Emissions in Five Northwestern Provinces

基于灰色关联分析方法，选取2005～2011年全国及西北五省的碳排放总量、三次产业比重数据，计算出全国及西北五省碳排放量与一产、二产、三产之间的关联度数值。分析表明，二产是导致地区碳排放量增加的最主要因素，西北五省的二产都与碳排放量关联度最大，但其并不会绝对地引起碳排放量增加；三产对降低碳排放量的效果不明显，全国层面上三产对碳排放量的影响最大，需要引起重视；对碳排放量影响最小的是一产，但青海省的一产对碳排放量的影响不是最小的。针对上述结论，制定出未来西北五省产业结构调整的碳减排对策。

Based on the gray relational analysis method , the values of correlation degree between carbon emissions and primary in-dustry , between carbon emissions and secondary industry , and between carbon emissions and tertiary industry were calculated by using the data of total carbon emissions and three industries output proportions in GDP of the whole country and the five northwestern provinces from 2001 to 2008 . The analysis showed that secondary industry was the main factor causing the regional carbon emissions because the correla-tions between secondary industry in the five northwestern provinces with carbon emissions were highest , but secondary industry did not in-crease the regional carbon emissions absolutely ;and the effect of tertiary industry on reducing carbon emissions was not obvious , on the na-tional level the impact of tertiary industry on carbon emissions was biggest , this phenomenon should be paid more attention in the future ;and primary industry had the smallest impact on carbon emissions , except for Qinghai province . According to the above conclusions , countermeasures of industrial structure adjustment were formulated for reducing carbon emissions of five northwestern provinces in the future .