全球油气资源潜力与分布

Global oil and gas potential and distribution

随着中国国民经济的快速发展,中国油气对外依存度日益增加,这就要求合理有效地利用国外油气资源,为此首次开展了全球油气资源评价的专项研究。油气资源评价以成藏组合为评价单元,针对不同勘探程度采用不同评价方法,高勘探程度盆地采用发现过程法,中等勘探程度采用主观概率法,低勘探程度采用类比法,最后采用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行汇总。针对世界不同储量分类体系,采用4类储量增长函数预测了全球到2030年的已知油气田储量增长量。对非常规油气资源主要采用体积法与类比法,评价了全球重油、油砂、油页岩、页岩气、煤层气、致密气6个矿种的地质资源量与可采资源量。评价结果表明全球常规和非常规油气资源潜力仍然巨大,应该积极参与国际油气合作,分享世界油气资源。这是中国首次对全球开展系统的油气资源评价,获得了自主评价的盆地、大区及全球的油气资源量,分析了资源量的分布与特点,指出了未来的潜力与方向,为中国油气公司"走出去"和国家制定能源战略提供重要的参考与支持。

With the rapid development of China＇s national economy, the dependence on foreign oil and gas is increasing, which requires us to use foreign oil and gas resources efficiently. For this reason, our country and CNPC carry out a significant project to evaluate the global oil and gas resource. This research uses play as the basic assessment unit. Different evaluation methods are used according to the exploration extent for undiscovered oil and gas resources. ＂Discovery process＂ method was used to evaluate highly explored unit, ＂subjective probability＂ method was used to evaluate middle explored unit, ＂analogy＂ method was used to evaluate poorly explored unit, and finally ＂monte carlo simulation＂ method was used for summarization. According to global different reserve classification systems, we adopt the four-type function to forecast the potential of reserves growth until 2030. As unconventional resources, we use volume method and analogy method to appraise the geological and recoverable resources of six types, such as heavy oil, oil sands, oil shale, shale gas, tight gas and coal bed methane. The evaluation results show that the world＇s conventional and unconventional oil and gas resource potential is still huge, and we should actively participate in the international oil and gas cooperation, sharing the world＇s oil and gas resources. This is the first time we have independently carried out a systematic assessment. We get the oil and gas potential of basin, regional and global, and analyze the distribution and character, point out the direction of cooperation. This research provides important support for our petroleum companies ＂going out＂ and government plant energy strategy.