基于转移-份额分析的工业主导产业选择实证研究——以云南省曲靖市为例

An Empirical Study on the Choice of Leading Industries Based on Shift-Share Method(SSM)——A case study of Qujing,Yunnan Province

转移-份额分析法(简称SSM)是考察区域经济结构极其重要的一种方法.主导产业的选择在区域经济发展中起着重要作用,工业在曲靖市经济发展中有着举足轻重的地位.为此,选取国家与曲靖市2008-2012年统计年鉴的相关数据,计算出曲靖市工业转移-份额值.利用统计的Shift-Share表进行分析,得出曲靖市的主导产业为:农特产品生产与加工业、设备制造业、化工产业和烟草产业,进而提出了相应的对策建议.

Shift-Share method （SSM） is an extremely important method for inspecting economic structure. The choice of the leading industries plays a very important role in the regional economic development and industry plays a decisive role in the economic development in Qujing. In view of this, relevant data taken from the national statistic yearbooks 2008--2012 and the local statistic yearbooks 2008---2012 of Qujing as well were chosen and the shift-share value of Qujing was worked out. By use of the statistic Shift-Share Scale, an analysis was done and the leading industries of Qujing were found to be the producing and processing industry of agricultural specialties, equipment manufacturing industry, chemical industry and tobacco industry and corresponding coping strategies are also proposed.