基于DPSIR模型的宏观调控政策对房价影响研究

Study on influence of readjustment and control macro-policies on house price based on DPSIR model

研究房地产调控政策对房价的影响,可为政府制定合理的调控政策、平抑房价提供参考。通过量化房价影响因素,研究宏观调控政策对房价的影响程度和周期具有重要意义。筛选驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应指标,构建基于DPSIR模型的房地产调控政策对房价影响的评价体系,并采用层次分析法和特尔斐法确定各指标的权重。对武汉市房地产政策的调控效果进行初步量化,结果表明武汉市房价随着政策调控的变化而呈现相应变化,房价变动方向与调控政策方向存在一致性。因此,武汉市房价对调控政策的反应敏感,但政策对房价的调控具有一定的滞后性。

The study of the influence of readjustment and control macro-policies on house price can provide reference for the government to constitute rational policy of readjustment and control and mitigate the increasing house price. Through quantizing the influencing factors of house price, it is of great significance to study the influencing degree and cycle of readjustment and control macro-policy on house price. The indicators of driving force, pressure, state, impact and response are selected, the evaluation system of readjustment and control policy of real estate industry on house price based on driving force-pressure-state-impact-response （DPSIR） model is constructed, and hierarchy analysis and Delphi method are applied to determine the weight of each indicator. Preliminary quantization is produced of the effect of readjustment and control of real estate policy in Wuhan City. The results show that the house price in Wuhan City changes correspondingly with the change of policy readjustment and control, and the directions of house price change and readjustment and control policy possess consistency. Hence, the house price of Wuhan City has sensitive reaction on readjustment and control policy, but there is a time lag between the issue of policy on the readjustment and control and the change of house price.