矿区资源承载力预测研究——以马钢南山矿区为例

Study on Predicting Resources Carrying Capacity in Mining Area:A Case Study of Nanshan Mining Area of Ma Steel

要实现矿区的持续发展,需定量地知道矿区资源承载力未来将发生怎样的变化,以保证其资源消耗在承载力允许范围内。矿区是一个开放复杂巨系统,且常缺乏资源情况的历史数据。系统动力学不需要历史数据就能揭示开放复杂巨系统的运行规律;情景分析法通过定量地设定未来多种可能的发展情景,能解决使用系统动力学模型进行预测时,控制变量难以定量的问题。以马钢南山矿区为例,证实系统动力学与情景分析法的结合定量预测矿区资源承载力的可行性,并阐述如何利用该方法进行资源承载力的预测。

Resources consumption should be ensured in allowable range of resources carrying capacity in mining area to achieve sustainable development, so it must quantitatively know resources carrying capacity＇s change in the future. However, mining area is an open complex giant system, and there is often lack of historical data about resources. Even if there aren＇t historical data, system dynamics can also reveal the motion law of open complex giant system. Through quantitatively setting a variety of possible development scenarios in the future, scenario analysis can solve the problem that control variables are difficult to quantify in system dynamics model. Through an example of Nanshan mine area, it demonstrated the feasibility that the combination of system dynamics and scenario analysis can quantitatively predict resources carrying capacity in mine area, and expounded how this method is used.