我国天然气供需格局演变及影响因素分析

Evolution of China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand Pattern and Its Influencing Factors

利用1985—2011年的相关统计数据,结合产业集中度指标和协整模型,分析了中国天然气资源供需格局演变趋势以及需求的主要影响因素,结果表明:①受资源禀赋的影响,天然气供应行业集中度指数CR5和CR10走势比较平稳,2011年分别达到了90.20%和98.40%;②由于各省市经济发展的不平衡性以及天然气运输条件优化,CR5和CR10逐年下降,分别从1996年的77.64%和94.36%下降到2011年的40.40%和62.20%;③协整分析表明影响我国天然气消费的主要因素是经济增长、天然气价格以及替代能源价格。最后提出相关政策建议。

The paper makes use of relevant statistical data of 1985-2011 years, through a combination of in-dustrial economics , industrial concentration indicators and econometric co-integration model to analyze the trend of the evolution of supply and demand pattern of China ’ s natural gas resources as well as the main influencing factors of the demand .The results show that：①due to the impact of resource endowments , the trend of natural gas supply industry concentration index CR5 and CR10 is relatively stable in 2011, reached 90.20%and 98.40%respectively;②due to the imbalance of economic development in provinces and cities as well as the optimization of natural gas transportation conditions,natural gas consumption industry concentration index CR5 and CR10 is declining, dropped to 40.40% and 62.20% in 2011 from 77.64% and 94.36% in 1996 respectively; ③ co-integration analysis showed that the main factors of China ’ s natural gas consumption are the economic growth , natural gas prices and alternative energy prices .And based on the analysis , the paper put forward several policy recommendations .