中原经济区人口长期均衡发展评价模型及实证研究

Construction and Empirical Study of the Model for Evaluating Population Equilibrium Development of the Central Plains Economic Zone

依据人口长期均衡发展的内涵和中原经济区实际,构建了中原经济区人口长期均衡发展的评价体系和评价模型。评价体系包括4个层级,选取了18个评价指标。参照多个标准确定了指标阈值,运用模糊隶属度函数方法对各个指标进行标准化处理,采用层次分析法确定相关层级指标权重。并运用2012年度的统计数据,对区域内28个地市以及整个区域的人口长期均衡发展情况进行测算和评价。研究表明:中原经济区的人口均衡发展水平略低于全国平均水平,但差距很小;区域内各地市之间的发展水平不均衡,不同指标的发展程度也不均衡。从影响均衡程度的关键因素看,人口质量和人口分布是制约人口自身均衡发展的主要因素,人口与社会的均衡状况、人口与资源的均衡状况对人口与外部系统的均衡制约最大。制定并完善相应的公共政策体系有助于促进区域的人口长期均衡发展。

This paper aims at studying and constructing the set of monitoring and measuring indicators and models for evaluating population long-term equilibrium development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. Based on the meaning of population equilibrium development and regional status, the author establishes evaluation system consisting of four levels and 18 evaluation indicators, and determines the threshold value, the weight and dimen- sionless value of indicators. By using statistical data of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the paper conducts em- pirical testing for the model and the results indicated that population balanced development level is slightly lower than the national average and there are large differences among 28 regions. The population quality and population distribution are the main factors in the population inner balance system; and in the outer population balance sys- tem,the relationship between population and sociality was the key factor, and the relationship between population and resources was the second one. In order to promote population equilibrium development of the Central Plains E- conomic Zone, corresponding public policies should be developed.