1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征

Distribution and Variation of China Agricultural Heat Resources in 1961- 2010

利用全国508个气象站点1961-2010年地面气象观测资料,采用气候倾向率和GIS方法研究了近50a全国尺度热量资源分布,并比较分析1961-1980年(Ⅰ)和1981-2010年(Ⅱ)两个时段的热量资源变化特征。结果表明:全国热量资源分布不均匀,总体特征为南多北少,东部主要受纬度的影响,西部则受地形影响。与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ平均温度0℃、10℃和15℃等值线均存在北移现象;日平均气温≥0℃和≥10℃的持续日数平均增加5.5d和4.7d;日平均气温≥0℃和≥10℃积温分布和变化趋势相似,华南地区5500~6100℃·d(≥0℃积温)和5300~6500℃·d(≥10℃积温)积温带面积分别增加5.32×104km2和1.92×103km2。1961-2010年,平均温度气候倾向率为0.27℃/10a,增暖趋势显著,且北方增暖趋势较南方明显;最低、最高温度气候倾向率分别为0.37℃/10a和0.21℃/10a。≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温增加趋势大体一致,约为70℃·d/10a。近50a,全国热量资源(平均温度、最高、最低温度和积温)呈增加趋势,且最低温度变化幅度高于最高温度,对气候增暖起主要作用。气候增暖将对农业生产的空间分布产生影响,使基于原来指标和气候确定的农业气候区划边界与当前气候现实存在偏离,研究热量资源的分布和变化对合理利用热量资源,确定合适的农业气候指标和作物种植区域具有指导意义。

Based on observed meteorological data from 508 stations in China, the distribution characteristics of heat resources were analyzed by using climatic trend rate and GIS methods in national scale in recent 50 years （ 1961 - 2010） ,and the change characteristics of heat resources between two periods （period Ⅰ 1961 -1980,period Ⅱ 1981 - 2010） were compared. The results showed that the heat resources distributed unevenly, and more heat resources in southern China than that in northern China. The key influence factor in eastern China was latitude, while topography was key factor in western China. Counter lines of average daily temperature 0℃, 10~C and 15~C in period Ⅱ moved northward comparing with period Ⅰ ,days of average daily temperature ≥0℃ and≥10℃ increased 5.5d and 4.7d on average,respectively. The distribution and change of average daily temperature ≥0℃ was similar to that of accumulated temperature≥10℃. The areas of the accumulated temperature zone of 5500- 6100℃· d （≥0℃ accumulated temperature） and 5300 -6500℃ ·d （≥10℃ accumulated temperature） increased by 5.32 x 104km2 and 1.92 - 103km2 ,respectively. The climatic trend rate of average temperature was 0. 27℃/10y in 1961 -2010,and the climatic trend rate of maximum and minimum temperature was 0. 37℃/10y and 0.21~C/10y in northern China. The accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased 70℃ · d/10y. The heat resources （mean temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, accumulated temperature） in China showed a increasing tendency in recent 50 years, and minimum temperature played a major role on climate, warming,whose variation degree was larger than that of maximum temperature. Climate warming might have some impacts on agricultural production and agro-climatic zone （including introduction,maturity-type shift and planting area expansion,etc. ）. The research result was helpful to determine the appropriate agro-climatic indexes and cn^p euhivalion area.