未来气候变化情景下江苏水稻高温热害模拟研究Ⅱ:孕穗-抽穗期水稻对高温热害的适应性分析

Simulation of the Heat Injury on Rice Production in Jiangsu Province Under the Climate Change ScenariosⅡ: Adaptability Analysis of the Rice to Heat Injury From Booting to Heading Stage

利用经过校准和验证的CERES-Rice模型结合CMIP3数据下的A2和A1B两种方案2020s时段天气数据,通过改变播期（提前6d、12d、18d,推迟6d、12d、18d）和品种耐高温系数G4（G4 =1.03、1.06、1.09、1.12、1.15）,研究江苏地区孕穗-抽穗期水稻对高温热害的适应性.结果表明：（1）播期提前12d和18d,水稻生育期和开花期延长,与基准期（1961-1990年）相比,其产量增加较多;相反,播期推迟,水稻产量均以降低为主,生育期和开花期缩短.A1B情景下高邮增产最多,达13％,A2情景下吕泗增产最多,为14％.（2）当水稻耐高温系数G4值在1.09～1.15时,所有站点均增产,A1B情景下高邮增产最多,为11％,A2情景下赣榆增产最多,为7％,生育期和开花期均以延长为主.（3）采取播期提前12d同时改变品种参数G4为1.1时,产量增加最明显.可见,将播期适当提前并提高品种的耐高温系数可以提高水稻对高温热害的适应能力,研究结果对未来江苏水稻生产具有一定指导意义.

Using the calibrated and combined CERES-Rice model and the weather data in the 2020s （2011-2040） of A2 and A1B climate change scenarios under the multi-model dataset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （ CMIP3 ）, the adaptability of the rice to heat injury from booting to heading stage in Jiangsu province was studied by the means of the sowing date change （6d, 12d, 18d in advance, 6d, 12d, 18d delayed） and the cultivar parameter adjustment （G4 = 1.03, 1.06, 1.09, 1.12, 1.15）. The results showed that, when the rice sowing date was 12d and 18d in advance, the rice yield increased most and the flowering date and growth period was extended compared with the baseline （1961-1990）. On the contrary, when the sowing date was delayed, the rice yield declined and the flowering and growth period was shortened. Gaoyou was the biggest yield increase region and the yield increased by 13% under the A1B scenario, Lvsi was the biggest yield increase region under the A2 scenario, whose yield increased by ld%. When the G4 value was adjusted between 1.09 and 1.15, the rice yield of all station increased. The rice yield of Gaoyou increased 11% under the A1B scenario and the Ganyu station increased 7% under the A2 scenario.The growth period and flowering date were mainly extended. The rice yield increased more obvious while the sowing date was 12d in advance and the cultivar parameter G4 value was at 1.1. So, changing the sowing date and the cuhivar parameter can improve the rice adaptability to the heat injury, which has the certain guide significance for the future rice production in Jiangsu province.