现在是中国存款利率市场化的良好时间窗口吗——基于利率市场化宏观经济条件的实证研究

China's Deposit Interest Rate Marketization:An Empirical Study based on Macro- economic Conditions

央行行长周小川最近提出要在一两年内实现存款利率市场化。基于此,本文从理论上分析了我国存款利率市场化的前提条件,并利用68个国家利率市场化的数据,研究哪些宏观经济因素影响了利率市场化的成败。研究发现,较高的经济发展水平、较低的通货膨胀率、较快的经济增长率和较低外债率能够有效提高利率市场化改革的成功率。通过数据模拟的方法,我们对中国2012年和2013年利率市场化改革的成功率进行了预测,发现中国在一两年内实现利率市场化是合适的。

The governor of People＇s Bank of China Zhou Xiacchuan proposed to achieve the deposit interest rate liberalization within one year or two. This paper theoretically analyzes the prerequisite of Chinese deposit rates liberalization, and uses the data of 68 countries＇ interest rate liberalization, to study what macroeoonomic factors affect the success or failure of the interest rate liberalization. The study found that a higher level of economic development, low inflation rate, higher economic growth rate and lower debt ratio can effectively increase the success rate of the interest rate liberalization reform. Using data simulation method, we simulated the success rate of the interest rate liberalization of Chinese in 2012 and 2013, and found the success rate is high, so we ar- gue that promoting the interest rate liberal^tion within two years is appropriate.