基于模型选择方法的农业巨灾风险承受能力评估

The Endurance Capacity of Agricultural Catastrophe Risk on the Basis of Model Selection

面对农业巨灾损失风险,我国保险市场的巨灾风险承受能力多大?通过模型选择技术构建农业巨灾保险风险承受能力度量模型,对我国农业巨灾风险承受能力进行仿真评估。仿真结果表明:在农业巨灾保险全覆盖的假设下,根据保物化成本的原则,面对我国平均每年遭受400亿元左右农业成本损失的情况,目前财险市场只能提供200亿元左右的补偿,赔付率仅为50%。当农业成本损失接近3000亿元时,财险行业承受能力也达到极限694亿元,此时赔付率只有23%。相比美国75%的农业巨灾损失赔付率,我国农业巨灾损失赔付率明显过低。这就需要按照"中央统筹协调、地方破题开局、行业急用先建"的"三条线,齐步走"战略,加速推进巨灾保险再保险、巨灾风险基金和巨灾风险债券三位一体的农业巨灾风险分散机制。

How is the endurance capacity of China＇s insurance market confronting agricultural catastrophe risk？ This thesis adopts simulated evaluation of endurance capacity of agricultural catastrophe risk by model selection technology. Results show： supposed with the complete coverage of endurance capacity of agricultural catastrophe risk and under the principle of keeping material cost, the insurance market can provide compensation of 20 bil- lion and 69. 4 billion dollars against the agricultural production cost hitting 40 billion dollars and 300 billion re- spectively, with the payment rate remaining 50% and 23%. China＇s payment rate for agricultural catastrophe is too low compared with that of the US which reaches 75%. Therefore, it is necessary to uphold the strategy of ＂Central government coordinating; local government getting off to a good start; industries setting off first＂ to speed up the agricultural catastrophe risk diversification mechanism by the combination of Catastrophe reinsur- ance, Catastrophe funds, and Catastrophe bonds.