公路边坡安全模糊综合预警方法

Fuzzy comprehensive early-warning method for highway slope safety

针对目前单一判据评判公路边坡稳定性状态存在种种不足的现状,分析了公路边坡地质灾害发生的特点和影响边坡安全的主要因素,提出了安全模糊综合预警方法.运用案例统计回归分析法、数值模拟分析法和边坡围岩蠕变理论,分别确定公路边坡稳定极限状态的累计位移阈值、降雨量阈值、变形速率阈值与变形加速度阈值.在此基础之上,运用专家评分法确定各判据的权重,构建判断矩阵,经模糊逻辑推理判明边坡稳定性状态,从而实现安全预警.利用所建预警模型分析边坡近两年的监测数据,进行了两次预警,其最危险结果均达到Ⅲ级.结果表明:预警结果与实际情况完全吻合,在该工程中取得了良好的效果,很好的弥补单一判据的局限性.

Aimed at hensive early-warn geological disaster placement, the rain regression analysis od was used to det the limitation of single criterion to judge the highway slope stability,fuzzy compre- ing method was put forward. Based on analyzing the characteristics of highway slope and the main factors affecting the safety of slope, the thresholds of cumulative dis- fall amount, deformation rate and acceleration were determined using the statistical , the numerical simulation and the characteristic of rock creep. Experts grading meth- ermine each criterion weight values. Consequent Finally the safety early-warning was carried out through fuzzy logi ly, the j udgm c inference to stability. Two early-warnings were conducted using the presented early-warning the most dangerous result achieves Ⅲ level with the observed data in recent two that the early-warning results are consistent with the actual situation, and they tions of a single criterion ent matrix was formed. judge the state of slope model in one slope, and years. The results show make up for the limita-