河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山径流变化特征及其影响因素分析

Mountainous runoff change in three inland river basin in Hexi Corridor and its influencing factors

以1961-2010年河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山年径流资料为基础,综合运用趋势分析、MannKendall突变检测、Morlet小波分析、R/S分析、降水-径流深度双累积曲线等多种数理分析方法,研究了河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山年径流的变化特征、影响因素及未来可能的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)1961-2010年,石羊河流域出山年径流呈微弱减少趋势,黑河流域和疏勒河流域出山年径流呈显著增加趋势,50年来黑河流域和疏勒河流域出山年径流存在显著突变特征;(2)1961-2010年,石羊河流域和黑河流域出山年径流经历了"枯-丰-枯-丰"4次交替,疏勒河流域出山年径流经历了"枯-丰"2次交替;(3)1961-2010年,石羊河流域、黑河流域、疏勒河流域出山年径流变化的主周期分别为5年、22年和15年,但不具有统计显著性;(4)河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山年径流变化受祁连山区降水影响较大,山区人类活动对年径流变化影响较小;(5)未来石羊河流域出山年径流可能呈减少趋势,黑河流域和疏勒河流域出山年径流可能呈增加趋势。

Base on annual mountainous runoff and rainfall data of three inland river basin in Hexi Corridor during 19612010,rate of linear tendency,MannKendall mutation point inspection,wavelet analysis,R / S analysis and double mass curve analysis were used to analyze interannual mountainous runoff change characteristics and impacts of climatic change and human activities on it. The results showed that：（ 1） The mountainous runoff of Shiyang River Basin experienced a weak decreasing trend,while the mountainous runoff of Heihe and Shulehe River Basin showed a significant increasing trend during 19612010. Significant mutation of annual runoff of Heihe and Shulehe River Basin was detected by MannKendall test.（ 2） There were four wetdry processes for runoff of Shiyang and Heihe River Basin. Two wetdry regime variations of Shulehe River Basin runoff was found during 19612010.（ 3） Three insignificant periodic oscillations（ 5year,22year and 15year） existed in annual mountainous runoff of Shiyang,Heihe and Shulehe River Basin respectively by Morlet wavelet analysis.（ 4） Double mass curve for rainfall and runoff depth revealed that annual rainfall had a dormant impact on the changes in annual mountainous runoff of Hexi Corridor,contrasted with human activities.（ 5） Annual trend of mountainous runoff in study area was persistent. R / S analysis indicated Heihe and Shulehe River had a strong increasing trend,while Shiyang River had a weak decreasing trend in the near future.