天津市滨海地区城市形态模拟预测分析

A simulation and prediction of urban morphology for Tianjin Binhai Area

以1998-2011年的五期遥感影像及2010-2030年的城市总体规划结果为依据,基于灰色logistic-CA模型,模拟预测天津市滨海地区2011-2020年城市形态演化过程,探索在历史惯性发展趋势下的城市形态演化规律特征。2011-2020年模拟预测结果显示:滨海地区城市形态将逐步形成"十字形"空间格局,十字形的轴带为海河城市发展主轴和沿海城市发展带;城市形态演化由五个组团主导,五个组团是塘沽城区、塘沽港、汉沽城区、滨海国际机场、大港城区与大港油田;前期城市形态将会围绕城市旧城区和港口扩展,中期将主要围绕五个组团式扩展,后期五个组团的扩展使沿海城市发展带与海河城市发展轴的十字形连接。

Based on grey logistic-CA model,we made simulation and prediction on the urban morphology evolution of Binhai area in Tianjin during the period of 2011-2020,trying to explore into the change law of the urban morphology evolution under the tendency brought by historical inertial. The predicting results of 2011-2020showed the spatial layout of Binhai area will gradually develop into a crisscross shape,formed by the main Haihe River development axis and coastal development belt; the evolution of urban morphology will be mainly dominated by five clusters： Tanggu City Area,Tanggu Port,Hangu City Area,Binhai International Airport,Dagang City Area and Dagang Oilfield; at the early stage,the city will expand around the old urban zones and the ports;at the middle stage,it will expand around the five above-mentioned clusters,at the later stage,the expansion hereof will connect the coastal urban development belt and the Haihe River urban development axis into a crisscross.