从剩余产能看新世纪世界石油供需形势

A Look at the World′s Oil Supply and Demand Picture from Spare Capacity Perspective

剩余产能是指在已探明储量并进行产能建设后暂不实施开采的那部分闲置的油气生产能力。它主要集中在欧佩克国家，但分布很不均衡，保有剩余产能的主要是以沙特为首的海合会国家。欧佩克曾欲以主动变化剩余产能数量来影响国际油价走势和／或抢占市场份额。本世纪初欧佩克剩余产能主要在100×104～600×104bbl／d之间变化，2003～2009年平均在250×104bbl／d以下．2010年以来平均约为350×104bbl／d。这些剩余产能出现在若干欧佩克国家的石油生产因受到严重干扰而明显减产．一些非欧佩克生产国因政策性原因而导致生产下降的背景下。此外，2007～2012年OECD国家石油消费量呈明显下降趋势，而且这种趋势还将持续下去并会有所加大；发展中国家也将陆续走上节能节油、降低石油消费量之路：大部分石油进口国已具有相当数量的石油储备；再加上以页岩油气为代表的非常规油气的大发展，这些都凸显出从资源保障程度上看．世界石油市场供需宽平衡、供略大于需的局面。世界石油市场将更趋于成熟．非市场因素对石油生产、消费乃至价格的影响力将会日趋降低。

Spare capacity is the oil and gas production capacity that has been temporarily idled after re- serves were proven in place and capacity construction was complete.Most of the world＇s spare capacity is in OPEC countries and its distribution has been highly uneven.Most countries having spare capacities are GCC countries,particularly Saudi Arabia.OPEC has tried to influence the international oil price trend and/or seize market shares by adjusting its spare capacity itself.OPEC＇s spare capacity ranged between 100×l04 and 600× 104bbl/d most of the time early this century,averaged below 250×104bbl/d from 2003 to 2009,and has stood at about 350×104bbl/d since 2010.These spare capacities occurred against such background that some OPEC countries＇ oil production was dropping considerably due to serious interruptions and some non-OPEC coun- tries＇ production was also declining due to policy factors.From 2007 to 2012,OECD countries＇ oil consump- tion fell significantly.This trend will continue and is expected to intensify.Developing countries will also take a path of saving energy and reducing oil consumption.Most oil importing countries have established significant amounts of strategic oil reserve.These facts,plus the large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas, typified by shale oil and gas ,underline the current situation in the world＇s oil market,from resource guaran- tee perspective ,where supply and demand are overall in a balance with supply slightly exceeding demand.The world＇s oil market will become more mature and non-market factors will have an increasingly small influence on oil production, consumption, and even prices.